Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
64 0x64e7…b9ca crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$30 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$169
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$157
other 37% +$60
sports 15% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.9% +12.1% 57% 57% +48.3%
≤30d 7 +23.9% +12.1% 57% 57% +48.3%
≤90d 7 +23.9% +12.1% 57% 57% +48.3%
all 25 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 48% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 48% -6.7%
10% -31.0% 36% -15.6%
15% -37.7% 24% -23.8%
20% -43.8% 12% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage138d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $218 $264 +$46 (+21%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 2¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $60 +$113 +188%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $104 +$62 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $107 −$45 -42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$54 +176%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 03 $43 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 03 $34 −$20 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 03 $95 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 03 $54 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 03 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 03 $35 −$24 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 03 $57 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 03 $39 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 03 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 03 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 03 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 03 $37 −$20 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 03 $59 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 03 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 03 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 03 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 03 $25 −$9 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $60 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $57 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $36 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $74 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $120 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $68 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $50 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $274 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $43 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $20 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $18 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $14 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $6 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.43 · official $310.44 (match) · 98 history records