Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64e4…8b64 world 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$1
world 33% −$19
sports 11% +$4
economics 9% −$1
politics 7% +$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 24 -1.1% -10.6% 29% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 38 +3.3% -6.5% 37% 5% -9.8%
all 70 +2.2% -7.5% 31% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 4% -9.7%
10% -16.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -24.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -31.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage299d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $61 −$3 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $69 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $70 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $71 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $141 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $24 −$7 -29%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $286 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $17 +$2 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $170 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $148 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $156 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $82 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $81 −$7 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $75 −$1 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $172 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $599 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $543 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $543 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $542 +$1 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 28 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $7 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 14 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $75 27m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $74 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $74 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $74 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $48 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $34 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $71 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $12 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $14 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $29 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $69 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $70 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $70 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $70 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $9 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $62 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $70 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records