Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
64 0x64e4…2089 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$846 (+12%) realized +$855 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%51W / 47L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$173
14 days+$454
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$1,009
politics 10% −$31
economics 8% +$13
sports 7% −$26
crypto 7% +$60
world 2% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 53% +1.4%
≤30d 22 +18.0% +6.7% 55% 55% +13.7%
≤90d 25 +61.0% +45.6% 52% 52% +24.1%
all 98 +15.7% +4.7% 52% 43% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 43% +3.6%
10% -5.3% 35% -6.3%
15% -14.5% 32% -15.3%
20% -22.9% 28% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$38 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$855
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses51 / 47
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 103
History coverage564d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $121 +$75 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $61 +$52 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $61 +$69 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$85 +140%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 +$71 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $76 +$120 +157%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Jun 12 $65 +$179 +275%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $20 +$266 +1329%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 20 $75 +$39 +52%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Feb 20 $150 +$13 +8%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 20 $260 +$10 +4%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $160 +$70 +44%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $80 +$10 +12%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? Dec 09 $80 +$60 +75%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? Dec 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? Dec 03 $40 +$89 +223%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29? Oct 31 $40 +$120 +300%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Oct 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01? Oct 29 $40 −$40 -100%
No Cut October Oct 29 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 28 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 28 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $80 +$15 +19%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $80 +$30 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $76 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $61 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $61 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 39h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $61 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $61 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $71 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 25¢ $61 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $76 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $76 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $76 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $121 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $63 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $76 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 74d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.35 · official $296.35 (match) · 188 history records