Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64e3…b275 crypto 1424 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,771 (+7%) realized +$1,768 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%829W / 721L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day167.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,414
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 727 -33.4% -39.7% 34% 31% -37.7%
≤30d 1550 -8.9% -17.5% 53% 37% -21.1%
≤90d 1550 -8.9% -17.5% 53% 37% -21.1%
all 1550 -8.9% -17.5% 53% 37% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 37% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 30% -28.6%
15% -32.6% 25% -35.5%
20% -39.2% 21% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$1,768
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses829 / 721
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1550 / 1424
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day167.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 78¢ 84¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$13 -112%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$7 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$10 -161%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$5 -122%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$9 -103%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$24 -103%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$43 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $22 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $22 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $22 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $42.13 · 3500 history records