Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64dc…4155 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$6
other 29% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 7% +$1
tech 6% $0
crypto 5% −$1
culture 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.9% -13.1% 14% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 16 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 6% -10.6%
≤90d 16 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 6% -10.6%
all 43 +1.8% -7.9% 37% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 2% -9.9%
10% -16.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -24.7% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage337d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $48 −$13 -28%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $45 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $40 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $19 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $81 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $41 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25? Jul 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 23 $20 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Jul 22 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 21 $16 +$1 +6%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $91 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $16 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $48 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $18 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $45 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $1 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $44 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.08 · official $32.20 (match) · 167 history records