Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64db…8c8e other 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$37,743 (+16%) realized +$33,885 · open +$3,858
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate65%101W / 55L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$1,414per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$26,466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$443
14 days+$922
30 days+$928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$34,044
world 12% +$3,721
sports 3% +$1,585
tech 2% +$328
politics 2% −$1,631
weather 0% +$131
finance 0% −$500
crypto 0% −$314
culture 0% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.1% -21.4% 67% 67% -2.6%
≤30d 22 -13.6% -21.8% 59% 50% -5.0%
≤90d 63 -8.8% -17.5% 59% 46% -16.9%
all 156 +14.1% +3.2% 65% 45% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 45% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 33% -5.4%
15% -15.7% 24% -14.5%
20% -23.9% 19% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,642) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$783 vs −$827 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$26,466
Realized+$33,885
Unrealized+$3,858
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses101 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions14
Markets (closed)156 / 170
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,414
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 92¢ $5,670 $6,405 +$735 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 62¢ $2,700 $3,690 +$990 (+37%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $3,300 $3,642 +$342 (+10%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $2,500 $2,824 +$324 (+13%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? No 21¢ 24¢ $2,113 $2,465 +$352 (+17%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 52¢ 82¢ $1,393 $2,211 +$817 (+59%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,250 $1,250 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $970 $1,017 +$47 (+5%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 99¢ $683 $1,002 +$319 (+47%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? No 51¢ 53¢ $749 $779 +$30 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $840 $675 −$165 (-20%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? No 72¢ 83¢ $232 $268 +$37 (+16%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $202 $227 +$25 (+12%)
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 99¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $900 −$720 -80%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 25 $1,223 +$163 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $3,650 +$1,000 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $970 −$810 -84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $565 +$515 +91%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $41 −$33 -82%
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t Jun 20 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $257 +$93 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $2,644 +$139 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $330 +$170 +52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $789 +$182 +23%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $834 +$161 +19%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $975 +$107 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 17 $450 −$447 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $261 +$89 +34%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,850 +$150 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $527 −$520 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,055 +$945 +90%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $24 +$10 +43%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $96 +$74 +78%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 03 $3,303 −$2,679 -81%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 03 $338 +$40 +12%
Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 May 03 $473 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 03 $932 +$89 +10%
Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 May 03 $2,199 +$18 +1%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 May 03 $1,727 +$1,001 +58%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 May 03 $2,443 +$6,531 +267%
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 May 03 $6,750 +$6,787 +101%
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 29 $12,228 +$1,670 +14%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 24 $1,300 −$1,139 -88%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? Apr 23 $63 +$37 +59%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 23 $68 +$62 +92%
Will MrBeast's next video get 61 million or more views on day 2? Apr 23 $334 +$59 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 52 million views on day 2 Apr 23 $791 +$33 +4%
Will MrBeast's video get between 77 and 78 million views on day 5? Apr 22 $80 +$44 +54%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 58 million views on day 2 Apr 19 $139 +$84 +61%
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" during his next video? Apr 18 $595 −$594 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 15 $4,500 −$4,124 -92%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 11 $425 −$425 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 09 $1,594 −$1,594 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 60 million views on day 3 Apr 09 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day Apr 09 $1,372 −$1,281 -93%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 66 and 67 million views on day Apr 09 $10,748 −$7,849 -73%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3 Apr 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 63 and 64 million views on day Apr 09 $800 −$800 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $139 3m
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $5 6h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $0 9h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $53 9h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $343 11h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $269 30h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $17 31h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $1,559 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $234 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $180 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $2,700 3d
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 66¢ $17 3d
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 66¢ $2 3d
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 66¢ $1,261 3d
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 66¢ $43 3d
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 66¢ $63 3d
Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $566 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $618 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $998 4d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $67 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 30¢ $444 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 30¢ $4 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 30¢ $4 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 30¢ $24 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 30¢ $424 4d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $4,650 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 11¢ $161 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 64¢ $970 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,466.45 · official $26,466.95 (match) · 1871 history records