Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x64db…325b sports 1306 markets active 1h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,884 (-1%) realized −$1,849 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%634W / 665L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$516est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$253
14 days−$253
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,903
other 0% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -56.7% -60.8% 25% 25% -47.7%
≤30d 4 -56.7% -60.8% 25% 25% -47.7%
≤90d 151 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 48% -13.0%
all 1299 +0.4% -9.1% 49% 49% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 49% -10.3%
10% -17.8% 49% -18.9%
15% -25.8% 49% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 48% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$172 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$1,166
Realized−$1,849
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses634 / 665
Est. fees paid−$516
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1299 / 1306
History coverage565d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 90¢ $200 $348 +$148 (+74%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 61¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 46¢ $200 $28 −$172 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $200 +$147 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 03 $325 −$320 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 03 $315 −$310 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 204.5 May 02 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 May 02 $46 +$46 +102%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 02 $299 +$311 +104%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) May 01 $305 +$334 +109%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 Apr 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 30 $298 −$298 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 29 $310 −$305 -98%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 29 $298 −$298 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 29 $201 +$209 +104%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $197 +$213 +108%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Apr 27 $207 +$201 +97%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 27 $197 +$216 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 Apr 26 $197 −$197 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 Apr 26 $200 +$200 +100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $201 +$203 +101%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 26 $201 +$203 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Apr 25 $205 +$199 +97%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 Apr 24 $200 −$197 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $196 +$204 +104%
Spread: Rockets (-13.5) Apr 23 $102 +$98 +96%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Apr 23 $192 +$208 +108%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 23 $200 +$202 +101%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 23 $200 +$247 +124%
Spread: Magic (-12.5) Apr 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Apr 12 $198 −$198 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-17.5) Apr 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) Apr 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-14.5) Apr 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-13.5) Apr 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-13.5) Apr 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5 Apr 12 $103 +$112 +108%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Apr 12 $208 +$192 +92%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5 Apr 12 $196 +$204 +104%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Apr 12 $197 +$213 +108%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Apr 12 $171 +$243 +142%
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 245.5 Apr 12 $197 +$223 +113%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 10 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Magic (-15.5) Apr 10 $197 −$197 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Apr 10 $193 −$193 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) Apr 10 $294 +$306 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 61¢ $202 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $203 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $200 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 25h
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 BUY Under 52¢ $325 48d
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) BUY Magic 50¢ $315 48d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 204.5 BUY Under 49¢ $305 49d
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) BUY Celtics 50¢ $300 49d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 50d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 50d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 50d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 50d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 50d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 50d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 50d
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) BUY Raptors 49¢ $299 50d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 50d
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $305 51d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 51d
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 BUY Over 48¢ $298 52d
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $310 53d
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) BUY Lakers 48¢ $298 53d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $112 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166.24 · official $1,166.24 (match) · 2819 history records