Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64d7…6881 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$10
sports 21% +$7
other 13% −$23
politics 10% −$3
weather 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 29 +7.3% -2.9% 48% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 39 +5.4% -4.7% 44% 3% -9.6%
all 49 +3.0% -6.8% 45% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 4% -9.9%
10% -15.8% 4% -18.5%
15% -23.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -31.4% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage492d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 94¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+130%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $49 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $47 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $47 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $51 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $83 +$3 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $27 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $112 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $93 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $6 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $91 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $42 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $43 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $338 −$5 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $243 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $239 −$4 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 27 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $20 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 22 $22 +$1 +2%
UNC Asheville vs. Radford Mar 20 $11 +$11 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $42 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $49 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $36 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $46 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $46 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $36 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $29 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.67 · official $60.16 (match) · 209 history records