Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
64 0x64d7…ce8f other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$11
sports 11% +$12
politics 3% $0
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +21.0% +9.4% 56% 44% -9.7%
≤30d 21 +14.2% +3.4% 57% 43% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +14.2% +3.4% 57% 43% -9.3%
all 21 +14.2% +3.4% 57% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 43% -9.3%
10% -6.5% 33% -18.0%
15% -15.6% 33% -25.9%
20% -23.8% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage13d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$17 -38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $69 +$5 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +49%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$12 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 14m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 15m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $28 15m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $56 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 36h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 36h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.85 · official $40.88 (match) · 54 history records