Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ce…3c70 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27 (-4%) realized −$16 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 68% -9.0%
≤30d 22 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 68% -9.0%
≤90d 22 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 68% -9.0%
all 22 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 68% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 68% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 27% -17.7%
15% -27.9% 5% -25.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 92¢ 57¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$4 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$23 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $20 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.75 · official $21.68 · 45 history records