Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x64cd…e0d1 sports 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,164 (-1%) realized −$1,165 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%23W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$721per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
politics 36% −$35
sports 15% −$1,123
culture 5% −$6
world 2% −$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -1.8% -11.2% 5% 0% -11.2%
all 125 -0.8% -10.3% 18% 13% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 13% -10.7%
10% -18.9% 13% -19.3%
15% -26.7% 12% -27.1%
20% -33.9% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$983) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$20 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,031
Realized−$1,165
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses23 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage132d
Avg bet$721
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $565 $566 +$1 (+0%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $465 $465 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $2,683 −$3 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $426 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,891 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $755 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,481 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,537 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,040 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,025 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $955 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $710 −$1 -0%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 23 $980 −$951 -97%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,213 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,365 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $2,643 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,588 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,393 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,408 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $2,030 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $485 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $302 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $346 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,935 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $450 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $445 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $405 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $465 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $316 3h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $317 4h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $425 6h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $426 7h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $496 27h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $497 29h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $424 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $424 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $487 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $488 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $485 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $486 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $424 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $425 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $565 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $754 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $755 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $846 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $847 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $750 20d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $752 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $889 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $890 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,031.17 · official $1,031.17 (match) · 422 history records