Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64c9…4869 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$396 (-7%) realized −$394 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$207
7 days−$327
14 days−$453
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$687
sports 45% +$330
world 3% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -19.7% -27.4% 37% 34% -14.1%
≤30d 44 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 34% -16.0%
≤90d 44 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 34% -16.0%
all 44 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 34% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 34% -16.0%
10% -32.0% 30% -24.0%
15% -38.6% 30% -31.4%
20% -44.6% 9% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$54 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$394
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage9d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana leading at halftime? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $115 +$51 +44%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 23 $55 +$23 +41%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $381 −$289 -76%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $204 −$99 -48%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $369 +$161 +44%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $205 −$37 -18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 −$135 -45%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $101 −$4 -4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $203 +$175 +86%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $257 +$117 +46%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $253 −$117 -46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $234 −$86 -37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$86 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 −$8 -8%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $132 −$103 -78%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$1 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $323 +$166 +51%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $164 +$24 +15%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $102 +$15 +14%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$3 -16%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $102 −$51 -50%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 −$25 -82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$91 +45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $192 +$80 +42%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$19 -74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 −$23 -78%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $198 −$143 -72%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$28 -56%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -54%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $119 −$94 -79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $158 −$98 -62%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +223%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$29 -56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$51 -41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 36m
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $166 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $115 7h
Algeria to win the second half? SELL Yes 83¢ $78 14h
Algeria to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $55 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 16¢ $52 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $381 18h
Senegal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 14¢ $92 18h
Senegal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 18h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 20h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $369 42h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $63 43h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 46¢ $77 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 35¢ $104 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $91 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 45h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 55¢ $97 2d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 56¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $257 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? SELL Yes 32¢ $136 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.86 · official $27.86 (match) · 108 history records