Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64c8…73ce politics 82 markets active 11h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$198,285 (-4%) realized −$199,468 · open +$1,183
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate70%51W / 22L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68,496per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$37,134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$89,830
tech 24% +$4,125
world 14% +$96,489
other 12% −$92,293
economics 5% −$136,799
crypto 2% +$19,954
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 0% -1.5%
all 73 -7.9% -16.6% 70% 42% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 42% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 18% -21.1%
15% -31.9% 11% -28.7%
20% -38.6% 4% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$54,756) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
32.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,669 vs −$26,848 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$37,134
Realized−$199,468
Unrealized+$1,183
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses51 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)73 / 82
History coverage623d
Avg bet$68,496
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $8,900 $9,985 +$1,085 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $8,200 $8,250 +$50 (+1%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 71¢ 79¢ $682 $758 +$77 (+11%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $213 $167 −$46 (-22%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 28¢ 51¢ $31 $56 +$25 (+82%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 43¢ 34¢ $65 $50 −$14 (-22%)
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Yes 80¢ 97¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+22%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele May 15 $2,415 +$239 +10%
Will Brad Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? May 05 $168 +$14 +8%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 14 $9,200 +$800 +9%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 14 $4,600 +$400 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $172,770 −$172,429 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Ge Dec 14 $136 +$48 +35%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $59,982 +$28,227 +47%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $9,633 +$1,215 +13%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $40,824 +$5,536 +14%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $54,756 +$8,375 +15%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $433,506 +$118,458 +27%
Will Obama endorse Mamdani? Nov 04 $332 +$68 +20%
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani? Nov 04 $1,012 +$620 +61%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Nov 04 $37,460 +$6,772 +18%
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor? Nov 03 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor? Nov 03 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Mike Bloomberg endorse Cuomo? Nov 03 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor? Nov 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 31 $2,574 −$1,263 -49%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $70,789 +$8,404 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $2,449 −$1,336 -54%
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani? Oct 26 $1,570 +$565 +36%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $43,617 +$8,086 +18%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Sep 28 $39,611 +$6,725 +17%
Will Eric Adams drop out first? Sep 28 $264 +$33 +12%
Will Eric Adams drop out by Friday? Sep 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Jun 17 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador? Jun 17 $99,000 −$99,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Jun 17 $61,210 +$6,054 +10%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Jun 14 $99,000 +$1,000 +1%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Mar 13 $14,079 +$6,470 +46%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary? Mar 13 $99,000 +$1,000 +1%
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? Mar 13 $323,237 +$3,276 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 22 $19,204 −$19,204 -100%
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 22 $7,830 +$978 +12%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $1,354,747 +$4,125 +0%
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $9,800 +$200 +2%
Will Biden pardon Hillary? Jan 21 $22,612 +$2,152 +10%
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? Jan 21 $118,334 +$14,461 +12%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 21 $662,381 +$7,611 +1%
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff? Jan 20 $16,400 −$16,400 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 20 $9,860 +$140 +1%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 20 $535,915 +$32,490 +6%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 03 $840 +$556 +66%
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? Jan 01 $4,609 +$401 +9%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Jan 01 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 01 $20,750 +$4,250 +20%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 01 $20,750 +$4,250 +20%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 01 $180,650 +$19,350 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 10h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 23h
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 8d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY No 43¢ $66 10d
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $218 10d
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? BUY Yes 80¢ $22 26d
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele BUY No 91¢ $251 31d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $66 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $112 32d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 32d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $340 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $32 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $8 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 32d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 35d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $34 36d
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele BUY No 91¢ $146 36d
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele BUY No 91¢ $228 36d
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele BUY No 91¢ $43 36d
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele BUY No 91¢ $485 36d
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele BUY No 91¢ $182 36d
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele BUY No 91¢ $191 36d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 36d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 36d
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele BUY No 91¢ $110 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,133.83 · official $37,133.88 (match) · 3076 history records