Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64c6…a070 other 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 592d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,291 (-6%) realized −$3,240 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%135W / 152L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$34
14 days−$31
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$3,738
politics 14% +$860
world 11% +$1,052
culture 10% +$482
economics 7% −$257
sports 2% −$429
crypto 0% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +30.1% +17.7% 90% 80% +7.8%
≤30d 25 -29.4% -36.1% 44% 36% -52.2%
≤90d 39 -45.7% -50.9% 33% 28% -55.7%
all 287 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 36% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 36% -12.4%
10% -22.2% 27% -20.8%
15% -29.7% 21% -28.5%
20% -36.6% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$99 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$3,240
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses135 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions25
Markets (closed)287 / 312
History coverage592d ⚠
Avg bet$188
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $59 $76 +$17 (+28%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 62¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+14%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 70¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+21%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 67¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+16%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 65¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 70¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 76¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+18%)
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 90¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 60¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+49%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 57¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 61¢ 27¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+44%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 43¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 67¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 87¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+98%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 68¢ 13¢ $23 $4 −$18 (-81%)
Will Colombia be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 5¢ 17¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+240%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 61¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+408%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $14 +$5 +36%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Jun 24 $41 +$1 +4%
Will Australia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 202 Jun 22 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $42 +$13 +32%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $24 +$6 +23%
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 20 $34 −$16 -45%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 +$4 +16%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $14 +$11 +79%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $30 −$11 -39%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 13 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? Jun 11 $89 +$9 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $98 −$43 -44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Haiti be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? Jun 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 01 $119 −$47 -40%
Will Kosovo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe win the Süper Lig? Apr 18 $87 +$19 +22%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 07 $175 −$173 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $255 +$129 +51%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-27? Mar 30 $128 −$99 -77%
Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Mar 30 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 30 $86 −$55 -65%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 30 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals? Mar 30 $59 −$47 -80%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Mar 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 30 $49 −$49 -100%
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 0.5% and 1.0%? Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 25 $308 −$21 -7%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Mar 24 $116 −$30 -26%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $25 +$29 +117%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $60 +$18 +29%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Mar 04 $122 $0 -0%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $38 +$242 +635%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $329 +$59 +18%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 01 $88 −$10 -11%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $247 −$246 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $138 +$90 +65%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $292 −$67 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 1h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $68 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $10 36h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $33 36h
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 36h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 36h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 2d
Will Australia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 202 SELL Yes 35¢ $7 3d
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $8 4d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Australia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 202 BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY Yes 61¢ $17 4d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $24 4d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $11 4d
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 5d
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 5d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $30 5d
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL Yes 60¢ $18 5d
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 5d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 5d
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 6d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 6d
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $20 6d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $8 11d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 11d
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 30¢ $17 11d
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $17 11d
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 31¢ $2 11d
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 31¢ $16 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.19 · official $346.74 (match) · 3500 history records