Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x64c5…0519 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$14
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$30
other 24% −$18
politics 22% +$3
sports 10% +$1
economics 10% −$4
finance 1% +$8
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 16 +1.0% -8.7% 31% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 30 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 3% -9.4%
all 80 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage468d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $78 $83 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $212 +$2 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $185 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $161 +$4 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $182 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $337 −$3 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $191 +$12 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $177 −$4 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $176 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $63 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 11 $113 −$4 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $139 +$16 +12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $144 +$2 +2%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $122 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $97 −$2 -2%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $123 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $128 +$8 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $126 +$2 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $951 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $953 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 10 $966 −$16 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 10 $1,067 −$4 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $970 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $28 $0 -1%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 -3%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 26 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $78 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $181 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $184 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $93 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $75 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $141 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $185 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $185 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $48 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $114 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $111 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $4 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $46 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $182 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $182 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $113 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $50 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.13 · official $81.50 · 261 history records