Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64c1…6ff2 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$30 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$3
crypto 23% −$12
sports 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 40% -7.7%
≤30d 10 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 40% -7.7%
≤90d 10 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 40% -7.7%
all 10 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 40% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 40% -7.7%
10% -47.7% 40% -16.6%
15% -52.7% 40% -24.6%
20% -57.4% 30% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 26¢ $40 $16 −$24 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 50m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $45 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 46h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $17 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.67 · official $17.51 · 25 history records