Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x64c0…414b crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$842 (+4%) realized +$842 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate84%61W / 12L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$20
14 days+$60
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$635
finance 5% +$14
tech 1% +$17
other 1% −$31
sports 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 67% -11.5%
≤30d 11 -7.2% -16.0% 64% 27% -17.7%
≤90d 67 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 34% -7.9%
all 73 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 37% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 37% -6.9%
10% -18.9% 3% -15.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -24.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$122 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$842
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses61 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage99d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $300 −$123 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$41 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$62 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $500 +$32 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $177 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $500 +$38 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $300 −$65 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $300 +$67 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $129 −$32 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $500 −$382 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $300 +$26 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $300 +$49 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $300 +$37 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $300 +$37 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $102 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? May 10 $500 +$76 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $500 +$96 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $76 +$5 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 3? May 03 $300 +$41 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26? Apr 26 $500 +$60 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 26? Apr 26 $300 +$39 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25? Apr 25 $500 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 19? Apr 19 $500 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $500 +$30 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $300 +$65 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $500 +$57 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $300 +$53 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $500 +$34 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 11? Apr 12 $300 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11? Apr 11 $500 +$41 +8%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $28 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $300 −$203 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7? Apr 08 $500 +$15 +3%
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 6? Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 6? Apr 06 $55 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30? Apr 05 $500 +$20 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? Apr 05 $200 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1? Apr 05 $500 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? Apr 05 $500 +$44 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 28? Apr 05 $300 +$46 +15%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 05 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 29? Apr 05 $300 +$22 +7%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 05 $50 +$6 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 31? Apr 05 $300 +$57 +19%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30? Apr 05 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31? Apr 05 $500 +$65 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? Apr 05 $500 −$9 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 5? Apr 05 $300 −$20 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 56¢ $177 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 93¢ $300 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $17 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $40 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $40 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $40 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $40 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $50 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $40 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 99¢ $28 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 87¢ $300 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $13 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records