Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ba…b7bf sports 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$469 (+0%) realized +$465 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate69%182W / 82L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$467per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$867est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$62
14 days+$752
30 days−$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$2,398
other 31% +$1,861
politics 4% +$754
world 3% +$596
finance 1% −$407
tech 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.6% -7.2% 67% 33% -6.0%
≤30d 26 -10.3% -18.8% 54% 35% -13.9%
≤90d 130 -5.2% -14.2% 70% 21% -9.4%
all 264 -1.1% -10.5% 69% 20% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 20% -9.2%
10% -19.1% 11% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 6% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$680) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$140 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$465
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses182 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$867
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage237d
Avg bet$467
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $410 −$57 -14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 24 $513 +$89 +17%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $680 +$30 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,020 +$690 +34%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $719 +$81 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $880 +$1,120 +127%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $191 −$191 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 02 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $523 −$43 -8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $400 +$50 +12%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $220 −$38 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $420 +$10 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $303 +$24 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $400 −$22 -6%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $280 +$720 +257%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 27 $730 −$730 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $720 +$10 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $103 −$45 -44%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $34 +$5 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 26 $80 +$10 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,248 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $0 $0 +61%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 26 $100 −$89 -89%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $561 +$20 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $1,100 +$20 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $681 +$40 +6%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $112 +$2 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $370 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $750 +$249 +33%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 16 $33 +$9 +28%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $148 +$52 +35%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $1,321 −$521 -39%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $781 +$30 +4%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 12 $1,121 +$20 +2%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 12 $917 +$72 +8%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $1,180 +$140 +12%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $1,060 +$325 +31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $407 −$407 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $150 +$92 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5? May 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $711 +$10 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $867 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $353 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $601 4h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 71¢ $710 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $161 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $249 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 68¢ $680 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $1,600 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $800 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $269 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $389 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $329 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $61 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $6 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $24 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $6 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $11 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $12 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $2 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $11 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $5 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $11 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $228 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $137 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $404 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $191 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.50 · official $18.50 (match) · 3026 history records