Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64b8…ab23 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,883 (+2%) realized +$1,883 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%24W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$992per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$13
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$5
other 41% +$1,979
sports 11% −$103
world 2% +$11
crypto 1% −$6
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -14.2% -22.4% 10% 1% -7.4%
all 121 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -8.1%
10% -18.4% 8% -16.9%
15% -26.3% 7% -24.9%
20% -33.5% 7% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,421) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$10 · ×11.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized+$1,883
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses24 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage137d
Avg bet$992
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $580 $580 +$0 (+0%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $420 $420 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,395 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,844 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $971 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $155 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $230 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $427 +$1 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $234 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $307 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $293 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,579 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,726 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $255 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $330 +$2 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $472 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,750 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $820 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $420 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $448 2h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $449 4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $580 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $538 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $538 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $945 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $947 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $924 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $925 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $858 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $859 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $927 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $929 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $970 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $972 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $821 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $823 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $970 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $971 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $957 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $958 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 18d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.76 · official $999.76 (match) · 349 history records