Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64b5…d952 crypto 366 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-4%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%343W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$16
other 4% −$101
sports 1% −$4
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 2% -8.9%
≤30d 260 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 364 -0.8% -10.2% 94% 5% -13.6%
all 366 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 6% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -13.6%
10% -18.7% 4% -21.9%
15% -26.5% 3% -29.4%
20% -33.7% 2% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses343 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)366 / 366
History coverage195d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 366 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 773 history records