Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64b5…962e other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$10
other 39% +$7
sports 7% $0
politics 7% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 +6.7% -3.5% 50% 6% -7.9%
≤90d 16 +6.7% -3.5% 50% 6% -7.9%
all 44 +4.0% -5.9% 32% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 5% -8.4%
10% -14.9% 5% -17.2%
15% -23.2% 5% -25.2%
20% -30.7% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.45 per $1 lost it wins $8.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage267d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $22 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -18%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $50 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 +$6 +120%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $39 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $9 +$7 +72%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $122 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $45 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $19 −$1 -5%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 13? Oct 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 2h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $51 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $51 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $18 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $20 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $14 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $2 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $15 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $30 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $7 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $1 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $39 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $6 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $41 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $22 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $22 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.75 · official $46.75 (match) · 195 history records