trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June | Jun 13 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $24 | +$8 | +33% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | Jun 10 | $549 | −$82 | -15% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? | Jun 10 | $5 | −$2 | -33% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $46 | −$8 | -17% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $230 | −$64 | -28% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 08 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 02 | $50 | −$2 | -3% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 01 | $418 | +$75 | +18% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $900 | +$1,071 | +119% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 | Jun 01 | $57 | −$42 | -74% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $38 | −$37 | -99% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 31 | $729 | +$945 | +130% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $541 | +$58 | +11% |
| Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? | May 27 | $446 | +$169 | +38% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | May 27 | $64 | −$4 | -6% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | May 27 | $6 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | May 26 | $389 | +$21 | +6% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | May 26 | $21 | −$6 | -29% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 26 | $3 | +$1 | +31% |
| Will Trump say "Eagle" in May? | May 24 | $11 | +$2 | +17% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 23 | $198 | −$17 | -9% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $140 | −$12 | -9% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -33.3% | -39.6% | 25% | 25% | -28.2% |
| ≤30d | 24 | -3.0% | -12.3% | 42% | 38% | +32.5% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -3.0% | -12.3% | 42% | 38% | +32.5% |
| all | 24 | -3.0% | -12.3% | 42% | 38% | +32.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.3% | 38% | +32.5% |
| 10% | -20.6% | 25% | +19.8% |
| 15% | -28.3% | 17% | +8.2% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 12% | -2.4% |