Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

64 0x64af…281f crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$14 (+7%) realized +$22 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown95%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day5.9pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-13.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-4.5%	-13.6%	71%	57%	-2.1%
≤30d	7	-4.5%	-13.6%	71%	57%	-2.1%
≤90d	7	-4.5%	-13.6%	71%	57%	-2.1%
all	7	-4.5%	-13.6%	71%	57%	-2.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.6%	57%	-2.1%
10%	-21.9%	57%	-11.5%
15%	-29.4%	43%	-20.0%
20%	-36.3%	0%	-27.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.43 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$22

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day5.9

Drawdown95%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	18¢	3¢	$10	$2	−$8 (-83%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$12	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 27	$52	−$25	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 27	$25	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$11	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 27	$25	+$7	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$12	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	SELL Down	63¢	$37	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$26	2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$25	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.51 · official $38.51 (match) · 14 history records