Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ae…23c4 other 7 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$349 (-53%) realized −$345 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$62
sports 44% −$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$86 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$345
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $100 $139 +$39 (+39%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $141 −$138 -98%
Nigeria leading at halftime? Jun 10 $59 −$58 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Carole Monnet Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $102 −$99 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Rinky Hijikata 32¢ $141 6d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 6d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 6d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 31¢ $102 6d
Nigeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $59 6d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Carole Monnet BUY Carole Monnet 14¢ $51 10d
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 29¢ $102 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.71 · official $295.71 (match) · 7 history records