Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x64ad…86b4 crypto 339 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,648 (+6%) realized +$1,729 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%176W / 157L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$288
7 days−$62
14 days−$156
30 days−$1,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$1,391
crypto 38% −$61
other 2% +$129
world 1% −$92
politics 0% −$14
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -21.7% -29.2% 40% 36% -12.5%
≤30d 98 -25.2% -32.3% 46% 43% -19.1%
≤90d 133 -8.0% -16.8% 53% 50% -12.7%
all 333 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 50% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 50% -4.6%
10% -14.9% 44% -13.7%
15% -23.1% 37% -22.1%
20% -30.7% 30% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$45 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$1,729
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses176 / 157
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions6
Markets (closed)333 / 339
History coverage234d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 32¢ 34¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ 18¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$52 +51%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $202 −$170 -84%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $101 −$46 -46%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $122 −$105 -86%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $81 +$3 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $229 +$179 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $247 +$93 +38%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$62 +31%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$50 -33%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$84 +83%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $151 +$57 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $353 −$130 -37%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$28 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $121 +$33 +27%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $227 +$80 +35%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $252 +$112 +44%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $211 −$21 -10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $81 −$30 -37%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $66 +$21 +32%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $212 −$20 -9%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $25 +$18 +70%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $50 +$11 +21%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $222 +$117 +53%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $152 +$97 +64%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $151 +$46 +30%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner May 30 $151 +$41 +27%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $212 +$27 +13%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 30 $111 +$44 +40%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $10 +$31 +303%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $41 +$34 +83%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $201 −$201 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 12¢ $5 6m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 38¢ $51 22m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $51 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $51 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $90 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 19¢ $20 18h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $30 18h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $30 18h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 22¢ $20 19h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $50 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $101 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $2 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $101 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ $14 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $20 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $51 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 67¢ $50 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $41 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $101 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $14 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $30 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $51 24h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $101 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 36h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 44h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 44h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 44h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 44h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.12 · official $116.29 · 779 history records