Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64aa…8f46 other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 23% −$20
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage134d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $452 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $578 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $930 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $339 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $160 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $722 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $340 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $254 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $323 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $163 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $159 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $221 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $313 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 5h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 7h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $65 8h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $65 9h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $65 21h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $65 22h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $65 23h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 24h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 30h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 31h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 36h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 37h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 43h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.28 · official $64.28 (match) · 1357 history records