Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64a9…7311 crypto 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,176 (-16%) realized −$1,102 · open −$293
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%39W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$440
14 days−$870
30 days−$870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$695
crypto 36% −$492
politics 6% −$15
other 5% −$133
sports 0% −$31
finance 0% −$7
weather 0% −$19
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -41.7% -47.3% 16% 16% -20.8%
≤30d 115 -22.1% -29.5% 21% 19% -23.6%
≤90d 157 -22.7% -30.1% 25% 24% -25.3%
all 157 -22.7% -30.1% 25% 24% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 24% -25.3%
10% -36.8% 18% -32.5%
15% -42.9% 15% -39.0%
20% -48.5% 11% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$1,102
Unrealized−$293
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses39 / 118
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)157 / 182
History coverage48d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $122 $131 +$9 (+7%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $41 $62 +$21 (+51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $40 $21 −$19 (-48%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 25¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+36%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 42¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $63 $10 −$53 (-84%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $37 $4 −$33 (-88%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 32¢ 1¢ $131 $4 −$127 (-97%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 30¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-95%)
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Yes 26¢ 5¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $80 −$76 -96%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $536 −$118 -22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $60 −$49 -81%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $17 −$6 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $150 −$29 -20%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$16 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$26 +173%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$5 -38%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 14 $15 −$5 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$33 +332%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 +$43 +107%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 14 $107 −$71 -67%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 14 $333 +$62 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 14 $968 +$153 +16%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$18 +35%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -38%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 12 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 10 $205 −$14 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $117 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$12 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 08 $50 −$21 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $121 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $60 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $83 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.42 · official $438.42 (match) · 704 history records