Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
64 0x64a9…09ec sports 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,069 (+19%) realized +$3,070 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 61L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$188
14 days+$29
30 days−$646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,337
other 2% −$322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -25.8% -32.9% 43% 43% -31.1%
≤30d 26 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 42% -30.0%
≤90d 79 +7.0% -3.2% 49% 48% -10.1%
all 128 +15.7% +4.7% 52% 52% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 52% +7.9%
10% -5.3% 52% -2.5%
15% -14.5% 48% -11.9%
20% -22.8% 37% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$97 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$3,070
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 61
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage165d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 34¢ 34¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $115 +$85 +73%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $97 −$96 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $93 +$107 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $63 +$137 +216%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 10 $146 +$59 +41%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $131 +$69 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $115 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $133 −$132 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $111 −$110 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $117 −$116 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $111 −$110 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $58 −$57 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $75 +$125 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $121 +$79 +65%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $59 −$58 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $85 −$84 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $143 +$57 +40%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 04 $135 +$65 +48%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $83 −$82 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 30 $102 −$2 -2%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $46 −$45 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 28 $65 −$64 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $86 +$111 +129%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $72 −$71 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $47 −$46 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $69 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $151 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $75 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $115 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $97 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $93 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $69 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $65 9d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $63 9d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 71¢ $146 11d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $131 12d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $115 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $133 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 18d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $111 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $117 21d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $111 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $127 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $115 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $91 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $91 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $109 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $139 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $137 31d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $139 31d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $137 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.00 · official $67.00 (match) · 218 history records