Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
64 0x64a8…7719 crypto 931 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$439 (-6%) realized −$443 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%507W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$343
14 days−$395
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$140
sports 47% −$360
other 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -30.3% -36.9% 50% 32% -21.4%
≤30d 501 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 50% -17.9%
≤90d 929 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 53% -15.9%
all 929 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 53% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 53% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 51% -24.0%
15% -31.1% 50% -31.3%
20% -37.9% 41% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$443
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses507 / 422
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)929 / 931
History coverage53d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 929 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Australia 92¢ 94¢ $281 $287 +$6 (+2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands India 94¢ 92¢ $131 $129 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 307 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $123 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 15 $361 −$361 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $35 +$5 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $50 +$24 +49%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $79 −$4 -5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 14 $154 −$154 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $149 −$98 -65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $18 +$7 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $86 +$14 +17%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $65 +$3 +4%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
ITF Zagreb: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Gina Marie Dittmann Jun 12 $286 +$46 +16%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $204 +$87 +43%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $279 +$101 +36%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 11 $66 −$47 -71%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $224 +$6 +3%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Valerio Aboian Jun 11 $21 −$1 -3%
ITF Guimaraes: Savannah Broadus vs Carmen Lopez Martinez Jun 10 $62 +$9 +14%
ITF Guimaraes: Belle Thompson vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 10 $155 +$25 +16%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi Jun 10 $18 +$2 +12%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $57 +$6 +10%
ITF Hurghada: Elizaveta Gurianova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 10 $59 +$3 +5%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $7 $0 -3%
Lithuania vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $11 +$2 +20%
England vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $17 +$2 +9%
Israel vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $29 +$2 +7%
Luxembourg vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $44 +$3 +6%
Luxembourg vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $27 +$2 +7%
Gibraltar vs. Kosovo: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $13 +$1 +7%
Lithuania vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $15 +$1 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $38 +$31 +82%
ITF Hurghada: Valentina Ryser vs Amra Sadikovic Jun 09 $125 +$3 +3%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will England win? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will India win? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Middlesex vs Derbyshire Falcons Jun 08 $14 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $32 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 94¢ $99 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $5 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $30 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $127 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 91¢ $15 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 91¢ $35 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 93¢ $70 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $18 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 93¢ $28 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 93¢ $3 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 93¢ $63 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $2 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 21¢ $13 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 21¢ $22 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 22¢ $21 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 20¢ $11 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 20¢ $10 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 20¢ $0 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja SELL Polina Kudermetova 50¢ $75 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $21 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $21 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $36 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 58¢ $36 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 92¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 78¢ $14 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 93¢ $5 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 57¢ $14 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 52¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.45 · official $415.45 (match) · 1932 history records