Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
64 0x64a8…7bc3 sports 1032 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,827 (-7%) realized −$16,824 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%775W / 613L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$1,560est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$6,763
crypto 6% −$302
other 2% −$75
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 370 -96.9% -97.2% 2% 2% -97.1%
≤30d 631 -53.2% -57.6% 32% 27% -59.4%
≤90d 1388 -18.9% -26.7% 56% 44% -32.3%
all 1388 -18.9% -26.7% 56% 44% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 44% -32.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 24% -38.7%
15% -40.1% 12% -44.7%
20% -46.0% 6% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$195 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$16,824
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses775 / 613
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,560
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1388 / 1032
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$232
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Jun 17 $358 −$358 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $274 −$274 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Long Beach State Beach vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $614 −$614 -100%
Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group St Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 17 $855 −$855 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs. UT Martin Skyhawks Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Nets vs. Magic Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs ECSTATIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Kings vs. Pistons Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14? Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $466 5m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $388 21m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 99¢ $387 23m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $22 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $101 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $101 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $35 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $29 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $20 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $9 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $9 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $20 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $12 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $135 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 83¢ $92 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 83¢ $67 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 83¢ $48 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $62 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 65¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 65¢ $95 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 65¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 65¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 65¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 65¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $99 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $51 14h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $416 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $223 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $101 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $82 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.90 · official $1.95 · 3500 history records