Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64a5…d411 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$11 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$111
sports 32% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +74.1% +57.5% 25% 25% +28.6%
≤30d 11 +20.5% +9.0% 36% 36% -14.1%
≤90d 11 +20.5% +9.0% 36% 36% -14.1%
all 11 +20.5% +9.0% 36% 36% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 36% -14.1%
10% -1.4% 36% -22.3%
15% -10.9% 36% -29.8%
20% -19.7% 18% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$31 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage9d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 29h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 29h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 29h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.98 · official $285.98 (match) · 23 history records