Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x64a4…c103
crypto · 369 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20,547 -59%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,173 · open −$374
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,747
Realized−$20,173
Unrealized−$374
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses260 / 515
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions19
Markets (closed)775 / 369
History coverage2d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1718.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 775 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20,173
7 days−$20,173
14 days−$20,173
30 days−$20,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $356 $374 +$17 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $361 $370 +$8 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $336 $345 +$8 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $291 $300 +$9 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $293 $299 +$6 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? No 85¢ 86¢ $292 $293 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? No 95¢ 97¢ $254 $258 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? No 98¢ 99¢ $245 $248 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? No 73¢ 84¢ $180 $206 +$26 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? No 97¢ 93¢ $215 $205 −$10 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $177 $197 +$20 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $156 $170 +$14 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? No 88¢ 98¢ $144 $160 +$16 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? No 73¢ 56¢ $191 $146 −$45 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? No 97¢ 99¢ $141 $145 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? No 74¢ 4¢ $198 $11 −$187 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? No 85¢ 1¢ $262 $2 −$260 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $335 $0 −$335 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $335 −$335 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% +$2,793
weather 15% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $14 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $14 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 775 -55.2% -59.4% 34% 23% -45.3%
≤30d 775 -55.2% -59.4% 34% 23% -45.3%
≤90d 775 -55.2% -59.4% 34% 23% -45.3%
all 775 -55.2% -59.4% 34% 23% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1718.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.4% 23% -45.3%
10% ← realistic here -63.3% 13% -50.5%
15% -66.9% 6% -55.3%
20% -70.1% 2% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,746.76 · official $3,749.01 (match) · 3500 history records