Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64a3…450a other 649 markets active 0h ago coverage 190d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 190d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,381 (-1%) realized −$1,958 · open −$423
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate78%486W / 134L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$4,234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$742
7 days−$648
14 days−$1,344
30 days−$3,203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$361
world 35% −$2,056
politics 4% +$826
sports 2% +$350
crypto 1% +$585
finance 1% −$60
culture 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 40% -15.3%
≤30d 194 +1.8% -7.9% 61% 39% -16.1%
≤90d 366 +1.5% -8.2% 73% 26% -9.7%
all 620 +1.4% -8.3% 78% 21% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 21% -9.6%
10% -17.0% 14% -18.3%
15% -25.1% 10% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$591) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$122 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$4,234
Realized−$1,958
Unrealized−$423
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses486 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions29
Markets (closed)620 / 649
History coverage190d ⚠
Avg bet$419
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $460 $470 +$10 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 80¢ $463 $429 −$34 (-7%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 78¢ $333 $413 +$79 (+24%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 81¢ 71¢ $339 $298 −$41 (-12%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 49¢ 26¢ $567 $297 −$270 (-48%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $244 $244 +$0 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 69¢ 96¢ $175 $242 +$67 (+39%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $175 $207 +$32 (+18%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $224 $182 −$43 (-19%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 68¢ 86¢ $136 $173 +$37 (+27%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 61¢ 79¢ $122 $158 +$35 (+29%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 68¢ $186 $144 −$42 (-23%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 27¢ 49¢ $71 $127 +$57 (+80%)
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? No 91¢ 85¢ $136 $127 −$9 (-7%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $108 $114 +$6 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $107 $110 +$3 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $336 $77 −$259 (-77%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 68¢ 84¢ $61 $76 +$15 (+24%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 90¢ 94¢ $39 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Sarah Rakotomanga 46¢ 54¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 40¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 65¢ 66¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ 25¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 46¢ 55¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $613 −$147 -24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $80 −$11 -14%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $31 +$13 +44%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $31 +$13 +44%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $31 +$29 +93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $112 +$8 +7%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $810 −$22 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $578 +$43 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$22 +54%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$13 -58%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $104 +$16 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $225 −$120 -53%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,165 −$614 -53%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$59 +146%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $166 +$34 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $121 −$94 -78%
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $40 +$29 +72%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $106 +$34 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $1,135 +$125 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $120 +$10 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $135 +$162 +120%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $279 −$276 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $40 +$158 +395%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $94 +$5 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $57 +$43 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$37 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $382 +$47 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $232 +$58 +25%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -95%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $41 +$47 +114%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $40 −$40 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $183 +$67 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $91 +$46 +50%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $42 +$78 +188%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $41 +$119 +291%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $105 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $32 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $409 11m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $69 38m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $20 56m
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 51¢ $30 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 1h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $14 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $107 2h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 50¢ $20 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $315 2h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 46¢ $27 3h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 46¢ $4 5h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $90 8h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 8h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 8h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $153 8h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 8h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 90¢ $13 8h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 90¢ $13 8h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 90¢ $108 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $4 9h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $22 10h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 10h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $17 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,233.75 · official $4,245.30 (match) · 3500 history records