Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x64a3…b5ee sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,917 (+28%) realized +$4,935 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$352
7 days−$61
14 days+$259
30 days+$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$5,866
other 8% −$1,047
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -42.6% -48.1% 31% 31% -11.5%
≤30d 23 -15.1% -23.2% 48% 48% +2.0%
≤90d 34 -7.5% -16.3% 56% 53% +12.7%
all 37 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 54% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 54% +15.4%
10% -23.6% 51% +4.4%
15% -31.0% 49% -5.7%
20% -37.8% 35% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$119 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$4,935
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage105d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 30¢ $40 $22 −$18 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$7 -77%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,100 +$364 +17%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $49 +$60 +124%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $187 −$187 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$12 -69%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $499 +$336 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 +$39 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $99 +$37 +37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $65 +$58 +89%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $200 +$164 +82%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $98 +$77 +78%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $99 +$61 +61%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $100 +$35 +35%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $100 +$44 +44%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $101 −$61 -60%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $5,621 +$2,017 +36%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $3,749 +$1,932 +52%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 11 $2,398 +$1,349 +56%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1,000 −$998 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $40 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 17h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $2 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 22h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $11 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $966 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $96 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $11 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $189 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $11 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $115 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $6 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $149 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $22 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $11 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $69 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $6 46h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $88 47h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $88 47h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $261 47h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $49 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $49 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $49 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $46 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $50 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.98 · official $23.78 · 101 history records