Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x64a3…e875
crypto · 143 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,330 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,191 · open −$137
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$174
Realized−$1,191
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses63 / 78
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage13d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 141 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$911
14 days−$1,191
30 days−$1,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 50¢ 30¢ $285 $174 −$111 (-39%)
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Paris Gentle Mates 40¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $147 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $215 +$78 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $186 +$59 +32%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $58 +$29 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$17 -50%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $141 +$33 +24%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $56 −$52 -93%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $90 +$48 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $115 −$26 -23%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $183 −$68 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $145 +$37 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$21 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$27 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$2 +5%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $135 −$18 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $54 −$53 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $206 −$64 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$34 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $45 −$27 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$13 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $77 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$22 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$36 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$26 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $88 −$82 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$38 -93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $43 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $141 −$99 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $73 +$47 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$12 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% −$807
crypto 50% −$521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $289 45m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 42¢ $139 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $39 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $38 59m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $215 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL Paris Gentle Mates 35¢ $16 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 40¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $245 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $186 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $87 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $58 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $34 3h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ SELL OLDBOYS- 87¢ $61 3h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ SELL OLDBOYS- 86¢ $114 3h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 69¢ $141 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 64¢ $86 4h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Leo Team 4¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 57¢ $56 5h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $138 9h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $90 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $36 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $35 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $36 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $88 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -14.8% -23.0% 41% 32% -19.5%
≤30d 141 -13.1% -21.4% 45% 35% -19.9%
≤90d 141 -13.1% -21.4% 45% 35% -19.9%
all 141 -13.1% -21.4% 45% 35% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 35% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 27% -27.6%
15% -35.8% 16% -34.6%
20% -42.1% 13% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.67 · official $173.67 (match) · 339 history records