Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64a2…f4c8 politics 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$7
other 25% −$7
culture 8% −$1
sports 8% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$743) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage93d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? May 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $68 $0 -0%
Will Won Chang-muk win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio May 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $883 −$2 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $745 $0 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 14 $76 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $740 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $727 −$6 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 12? May 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $785 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 Mar 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,235 57m
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,203 1h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,287 1h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,254 2h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $929 2h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $334 2h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $34 2h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,265 2h
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 37d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 37d
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 37d
Will Won Chang-muk win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio SELL No 100¢ $12 37d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 38d
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 38d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 38d
Will Won Chang-muk win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio SELL No 100¢ $12 38d
Will Won Chang-muk win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio BUY No 100¢ $24 38d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 44d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $743 44d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 44d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $694 44d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 44d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 44d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records