Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64a1…44d9 world 27 markets active 6d ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
other 15% $0
finance 11% −$4
culture 8% $0
sports 7% +$1
politics 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.4% -23.5% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤30d 12 -2.9% -12.1% 17% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 12 -2.9% -12.1% 17% 0% -11.4%
all 27 -2.0% -11.4% 26% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.6%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage296d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$4 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $46 −$3 -7%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $7 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 24 $1 $0 +7%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $43 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $43 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $8 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $17 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $15 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $39 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $38 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $34 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $36 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $43 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records