Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x64a0…210b crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$76 (+3%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$124
other 4% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.0% -9.5% 65% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 40 +0.0% -9.5% 65% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 40 +0.0% -9.5% 65% 50% -4.5%
all 40 +0.0% -9.5% 65% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 50% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 45% -13.6%
15% -26.1% 35% -22.0%
20% -33.3% 25% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $168 +$32 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $185 +$15 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$13 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$18 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$20 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$13 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $152 +$48 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $211 +$33 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $427 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$35 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$13 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +57%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$13 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $591 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$18 -45%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $68 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $96 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $90 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $152 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $46 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $66 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $0 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $80 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records