Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
64 0x649f…ca2e sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92 (+3%) realized +$95 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$310
sports 44% −$45
crypto 9% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.9% -18.5% 37% 26% -1.8%
≤30d 19 -9.9% -18.5% 37% 26% -1.8%
≤90d 19 -9.9% -18.5% 37% 26% -1.8%
all 19 -9.9% -18.5% 37% 26% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 26% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 26% -11.2%
15% -33.4% 21% -19.7%
20% -39.9% 16% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$29 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $812 +$261 +32%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $606 −$52 -8%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $101 +$7 +7%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $102 −$32 -32%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$14 -14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $102 −$74 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$27 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $17 +$9 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $202 +$131 +65%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $51 +$127 +250%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -50%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League S Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $29 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $302 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $406 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 32¢ $70 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 28¢ $149 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $78 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $54 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 41¢ $88 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 41¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 55¢ $304 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 9¢ $28 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $17 7h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 9¢ $49 7h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.79 · official $346.79 (match) · 50 history records