Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x649a…9706 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$89 (-10%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$14
crypto 6% −$32
politics 5% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.8% -3.3% 50% 38% -6.5%
≤30d 23 -29.9% -36.6% 39% 30% -15.7%
≤90d 23 -29.9% -36.6% 39% 30% -15.7%
all 23 -29.9% -36.6% 39% 30% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 30% -15.7%
10% -42.6% 26% -23.7%
15% -48.2% 17% -31.1%
20% -53.2% 9% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage10d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$14 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $28 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $274 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$9 -35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $29 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $48 +$21 +43%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $42 −$24 -56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $27 +$15 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $97 −$36 -37%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $42 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $33 +$9 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 +$9 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$17 -78%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $27 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $42 −$10 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $44 −$31 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 84¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 62¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 42¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 36¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 61¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 82¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 66¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 62¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 60¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 26¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 48¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 $27 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 $29 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $29 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $25 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $26 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $24 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 41¢ $24 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $43 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 76¢ $43 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records