Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

64 0x649a…477b other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$75 (+11%) realized +$92 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%13W / 11L

Drawdown77%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-24.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-17.0%	-24.9%	54%	54%	-5.0%
≤30d	24	-17.0%	-24.9%	54%	54%	-5.0%
≤90d	24	-17.0%	-24.9%	54%	54%	-5.0%
all	24	-17.0%	-24.9%	54%	54%	-5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.9%	54%	-5.0%
10%	-32.1%	46%	-14.1%
15%	-38.6%	46%	-22.4%
20%	-44.7%	25%	-30.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late -21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.13 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$69

Realized+$92

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses13 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)24 / 28

History coverage7d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown77%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	2¢	0¢	$16	$1	−$15 (-97%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$56	−$56	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$30	+$15	+50%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$9	−$9	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$30	+$23	+76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$30	+$4	+12%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$15	+$8	+52%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$2	−$2	-97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$10	+$7	+65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$50	+$21	+41%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$13	−$11	-83%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	−$9	-46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$30	+$14	+48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$26	+52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$6	−$6	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 21	$4	+$2	+62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	+$6	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	+$14	+48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$45	+$23	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$36	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 20	$3	−$3	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$11	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$6	4m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$51	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$45	3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$9	4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	45¢	$20	6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	65¢	$15	28h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	4¢	$2	30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$10	40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	89¢	$30	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$3	4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$2	4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	37¢	$11	4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	34¢	$10	4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$30	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	49¢	$30	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$6	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$4	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	56¢	$30	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$20	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.19 · official $73.76 · 50 history records