Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6497…d577 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,720 (-1%) realized −$1,720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%31W / 112L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,094per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$111
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$369
politics 38% −$71
sports 9% −$1,315
economics 4% −$5
crypto 2% +$4
culture 2% −$3
world 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -10.9% -19.4% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 86 -5.8% -14.7% 5% 1% -10.6%
all 143 -4.7% -13.7% 22% 10% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 10% -10.5%
10% -22.0% 9% -19.1%
15% -29.5% 8% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,550) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$1,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses31 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,094
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $333 $333 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,407 −$4 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,695 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $815 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,186 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,768 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,277 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,386 −$5 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,334 −$1 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,742 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,931 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $311 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $456 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $4,254 −$6 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,250 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,079 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $646 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $2,173 −$3 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,117 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,925 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $939 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,922 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,243 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $2,409 −$3 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $3,580 −$4 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $508 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $568 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $569 3h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $763 5h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $764 7h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $694 47h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $695 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $639 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $639 2d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $665 2d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $666 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $609 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $609 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $333 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $815 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $894 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $672 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $673 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,070 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,072 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $419 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $420 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 10d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.19 · official $333.19 (match) · 465 history records