trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$3 | +262% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 10 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Jun 10 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Jun 07 | $4 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 07 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el | Jun 07 | $3 | +$1 | +34% |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | Jun 04 | $5 | −$5 | -90% |
| Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang | Jun 03 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Jun 03 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | Jun 01 | $5 | −$1 | -15% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | May 28 | $2 | $0 | -14% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 28 | $5 | −$2 | -48% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 26 | $3 | +$3 | +101% |
| Hurricanes vs. Flyers | May 10 | $2 | +$1 | +55% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 10 | $5 | −$1 | -10% |
| Hurricanes vs. Flyers | May 08 | $5 | $0 | -3% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 07 | $4 | $0 | -9% |
| Ducks vs. Golden Knights | May 07 | $4 | +$1 | +23% |
| Ducks vs. Golden Knights | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Wild vs. Avalanche | May 06 | $4 | −$1 | -24% |
| Wild vs. Avalanche | May 05 | $5 | $0 | -9% |
| Canadiens vs. Lightning | May 04 | $10 | +$2 | +23% |
| Lightning vs. Canadiens | May 03 | $11 | −$5 | -47% |
| Flyers vs. Hurricanes | May 03 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Sabres vs. Bruins | May 02 | $6 | +$5 | +90% |
| Kash Patel out by May 31? | May 02 | $9 | −$2 | -17% |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 31? | May 02 | $2 | −$2 | -75% |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -90% |
| Oilers vs. Ducks | May 01 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Stars vs. Wild | May 01 | $4 | −$2 | -54% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 01 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | May 01 | $5 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | May 01 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Canadiens vs. Lightning | Apr 30 | $2 | +$3 | +146% |
| Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Apr 29 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | Apr 29 | $8 | −$2 | -23% |
| Bruins vs. Sabres | Apr 29 | $21 | −$10 | -46% |
| Penguins vs. Flyers | Apr 29 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Apr 28 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Apr 28 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | Apr 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Flyers vs. Penguins | Apr 28 | $5 | +$4 | +76% |
| Oilers vs. Ducks | Apr 27 | $9 | +$1 | +14% |
| Lightning vs. Canadiens | Apr 27 | $10 | −$4 | -41% |
| Avalanche vs. Kings | Apr 27 | $5 | +$3 | +57% |
| Sabres vs. Bruins | Apr 26 | $5 | +$5 | +97% |
| Penguins vs. Flyers | Apr 26 | $5 | +$5 | +101% |
| Hurricanes vs. Senators | Apr 25 | $5 | +$4 | +79% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Apr 25 | $5 | −$4 | -86% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 33% | 33% | -29.6% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -12.7% | -21.0% | 31% | 23% | -28.3% |
| ≤90d | 78 | -19.2% | -26.9% | 26% | 24% | -28.7% |
| all | 78 | -19.2% | -26.9% | 26% | 24% | -28.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.9% | 24% | -28.7% |
| 10% | -33.9% | 23% | -35.6% |
| 15% | -40.3% | 19% | -41.8% |
| 20% | -46.1% | 18% | -47.5% |