Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6494…c1b7 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$108 (+10%) realized +$144 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%13W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$15
14 days+$195
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$94
world 27% −$53
politics 17% +$80
economics 7% −$18
crypto 4% −$30
tech 4% +$26
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -69.9% -72.8% 12% 12% +19.8%
≤30d 20 +34.1% +21.4% 15% 15% +57.5%
≤90d 69 -0.8% -10.2% 19% 17% +4.9%
all 69 -0.8% -10.2% 19% 17% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 17% +4.9%
10% -18.8% 17% -5.1%
15% -26.6% 17% -14.3%
20% -33.8% 17% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$7 · ×5.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$144
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses13 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)69 / 98
History coverage72d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $45 $37 −$8 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 49¢ 83¢ $16 $27 +$11 (+69%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+270%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-20%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 7¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 16¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 21¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+62%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+100%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+87%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-43%)
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cesc Fabregas be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlo Ancelotti be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $25 +$35 +141%
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $8 +$182 +2281%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.8M and 6.9M in April? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? May 30 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Trump post "Tina" on Truth Social this week? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $15 −$14 -91%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 23 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in c May 23 $3 +$4 +117%
Will Trump post "Big" or "Bigger" or "Biggest" on Truth Social this we May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be less than 25 points? May 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Denmark come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 +$46 +463%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 16 $17 −$5 -27%
Will Trump post "Paper tiger" on Truth Social this week? May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "China" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 04 $35 −$11 -31%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 04 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Bernie Sanders say "DHS" or "TSA" in Michigan? May 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Billion" or "Billionaire" 5+ times in Michiga May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Amazon" or "Jeff" or "Bezos" in Michigan? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
US recession by end of 2026? May 03 $40 −$11 -29%
Will MrBeast say "Influencer" during his next video? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Technology" during his next video? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more? May 01 $8 +$30 +381%
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more? Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy bo BUY Yes 10¢ $6 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 3d
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 3d
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? BUY No 26¢ $4 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 13¢ $4 5d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $5 5d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $7 5d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 23¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 5d
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 17d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 17d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 17d
Will Cesc Fabregas be the next manager of Benfica? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Carlo Ancelotti be the next manager of Benfica? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.8M and 6.9M in April? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 17d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $21 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.09 · official $285.95 (match) · 247 history records