Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6492…7154 sports 1694 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1656W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$273
weather 18% −$184
other 16% −$37
crypto 2% +$2
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 197 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1453 -0.7% -10.2% 98% 0% -10.2%
all 1693 -0.6% -10.0% 98% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1656 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1693 / 1694
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Tomljanovic Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 12h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 100¢ $1 12h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 100¢ $49 12h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $37 20h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 29h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 100¢ $50 41h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 100¢ $50 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $50 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 4d
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 3500 history records