Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x648d…802d crypto 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$207 (-9%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate53%130W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$218
14 days−$223
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$227
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -37.4% -43.4% 55% 34% -31.8%
≤30d 196 -17.8% -25.6% 55% 32% -19.8%
≤90d 245 -12.4% -20.7% 53% 34% -18.0%
all 245 -12.4% -20.7% 53% 34% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 34% -18.0%
10% -28.3% 20% -25.8%
15% -35.2% 13% -33.0%
20% -41.6% 11% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses130 / 115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)245 / 247
History coverage80d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 52m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.97 · official $9.97 (match) · 1311 history records