Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x648d…3868 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%41W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day79.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$42
world 19% −$19
tech 5% −$11
finance 3% +$8
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +4.5% -5.5% 42% 41% -8.0%
≤30d 97 +4.5% -5.5% 42% 41% -8.0%
≤90d 97 +4.5% -5.5% 42% 41% -8.0%
all 97 +4.5% -5.5% 42% 41% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 41% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 41% -16.8%
15% -22.8% 41% -24.8%
20% -30.3% 41% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses41 / 56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day79.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 75¢ 91¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$22 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$24 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$17 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$10 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$10 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$11 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$18 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$25 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$10 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.61 · official $85.61 (match) · 453 history records