Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x648c…09c6
other · 446 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,200 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,020 · open −$171
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,712
Realized−$3,020
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses186 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions24
Markets (closed)422 / 446
History coverage689d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 24 History 422 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$242
30 days−$1,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 51¢ 93¢ $780 $1,433 +$653 (+84%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 50¢ $1,030 $833 −$197 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $460 $486 +$26 (+6%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 47¢ 78¢ $235 $392 +$158 (+67%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 60¢ $306 $363 +$57 (+19%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 68¢ 99¢ $238 $348 +$110 (+46%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 56¢ $269 $226 −$43 (-16%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $102 $87 −$15 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $70 $59 −$11 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $61 $52 −$10 (-16%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 71¢ 13¢ $272 $50 −$221 (-81%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $21 $44 +$23 (+112%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 60¢ 16¢ $120 $31 −$89 (-74%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Down 59¢ 28¢ $56 $26 −$30 (-53%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $78 $21 −$57 (-73%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 49¢ 18¢ $53 $19 −$34 (-64%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $168 $16 −$152 (-90%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 14¢ $67 $14 −$53 (-78%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $37 $12 −$25 (-67%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $60 $7 −$53 (-89%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $136 $5 −$131 (-96%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $88 $4 −$84 (-96%)
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $67 +$33 +50%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $500 −$176 -35%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $21 −$21 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $66 −$30 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $953 −$651 -68%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $41 +$19 +46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $38 −$20 -52%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $128 +$54 +42%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $371 +$144 +39%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $45 −$44 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $28 −$27 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $139 −$118 -85%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $163 +$108 +66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $54 +$46 +85%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $91 −$39 -42%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $510 +$233 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 08 $103 −$100 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $167 +$120 +72%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 06 $510 −$430 -84%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $56 +$44 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals May 02 $127 −$125 -99%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 01 $140 −$89 -63%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? May 01 $10 +$4 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $159 +$134 +85%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $51 −$50 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $88 −$66 -74%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $505 −$243 -48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 26 $162 +$38 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $85 −$55 -65%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Apr 24 $35 +$15 +42%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $111 +$86 +77%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 23 $39 +$28 +71%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 18 $66 +$29 +44%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $350 −$68 -20%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $162 +$121 +75%
The Masters 2026: Hole in One? Apr 13 $65 +$54 +83%
Will Ben Griffin finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta National Invi Apr 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 17% +$915
politics 16% −$3,062
finance 15% +$1,284
other 15% −$1,510
crypto 12% −$137
sports 12% +$83
world 12% −$361
weather 1% −$515
culture 0% +$49
tech 0% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 33¢ $18 56m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 45¢ $66 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 62¢ $62 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 57¢ $117 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $102 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB R BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Milwaukee Brewers 66¢ $67 11d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB R BUY Yes 17¢ $11 12d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $86 13d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 35¢ $21 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $132 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $45 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $882 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 49¢ $53 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? SELL Down 40¢ $11 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? SELL Down 67¢ $24 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 52¢ $14 16d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 43¢ $17 16d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 43¢ $17 16d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 43¢ $9 16d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 43¢ $9 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $50 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $18 16d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $41 16d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 48¢ $75 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 49¢ $294 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $166 19d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22? SELL Down 16¢ $17 21d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22? BUY Down 25¢ $38 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $305 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 17 -65.0% -68.3% 24% 24% -53.9%
≤90d 89 -40.0% -45.7% 34% 33% -20.7%
all 422 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 42% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 42% -11.7%
10% -28.1% 38% -20.1%
15% -35.1% 33% -27.8%
20% -41.4% 27% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,711.52 · official $4,709.90 (match) · 2869 history records