Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x648b…00ba world 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-2%) realized −$29 · open −$257
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day83.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$989now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$6
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$244
politics 22% −$144
finance 5% −$9
crypto 4% +$113
other 1% −$2
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.8% -20.2% 38% 12% -5.4%
≤30d 48 -14.2% -22.4% 31% 10% -10.4%
≤90d 48 -14.2% -22.4% 31% 10% -10.4%
all 48 -14.2% -22.4% 31% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 10% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 8% -19.0%
15% -36.6% 8% -26.8%
20% -42.8% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$989
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$257
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions58
Markets (closed)48 / 106
History coverage22d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day83.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 84¢ 99¢ $128 $152 +$24 (+19%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $66 $95 +$29 (+45%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 96¢ 99¢ $73 $75 +$2 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 92¢ $36 $70 +$34 (+94%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $23 $54 +$31 (+132%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $40 $48 +$7 (+18%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+34%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 69¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+36%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+8%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+151%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 71¢ 99¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+40%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 84¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+131%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 82¢ 82¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 56¢ 58¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 86¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 52¢ 17¢ $31 $10 −$21 (-68%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 96¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 68¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 88¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+165%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $52 +$5 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 09 $14 +$9 +67%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$26 -47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $91 −$19 -21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $70 −$47 -67%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 06 $32 −$5 -15%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $123 +$113 +92%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $19 −$11 -57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 02 $49 −$9 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $170 −$9 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $51 +$3 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $89 −$6 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 02 $60 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $68 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 30 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 30 $52 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 30 $9 −$3 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 30 $10 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 30 $23 −$2 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 30 $38 −$2 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? May 27 $4 $0 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 26 $6 −$4 -64%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $10 −$6 -55%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $9 −$3 -32%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $5 +$6 +105%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 22m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 53m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 56m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $989.05 · official $987.20 (match) · 1869 history records