Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
64 0x648b…3027 world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$20 (+10%) realized +$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$18
politics 7% $0
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% +12.2%
≤30d 3 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% +12.2%
≤90d 3 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% +12.2%
all 3 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 67% +12.2%
10% -6.3% 33% +1.4%
15% -15.3% 0% -8.4%
20% -23.6% 0% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$0 · ×23.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×46.05 per $1 lost it wins $46.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 81¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $22 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.83 · official $117.84 (match) · 12 history records